After Vols, the SEC Chase Is Wide Open
Florida is back with the pack finally, and with it the Southeastern Conference may not be viewed by the national TV "experts" as the powerhouse league it's been. But make no mistake, like football proved in 2007, every night on the basketball court will be a fight no matter the matchup.
The SEC West Division was so balanced - or maybe so mediocre - last season, nobody finished better than 8-8. Look for a little better quality on that side, but still more dog-eat-dog nights that hurt the overall records. Also, look for more balance on the East side, at least among the teams below Tennessee, the odds-on favorite to win the overall SEC title and contend for a spot in the Final Four as well. But with Florida no longer the stand-alone power in the league, expect an overall dropoff and probably fewer teams in the NCAA mix by March - or, more precisely, more teams on the bubble when the league convenes in Atlanta for the SEC Tournament.
Here's our preview of the conference season, which tips off Jan. 5, and the predicted order of finish in each division.
SEC WEST DIVISION
ARKANSAS: With Patrick Beverley in the backcourt and with its frontcourt experience and depth, plus new coach John Pelphrey having brought an uptempo, pressing style, Arkansas should pull ahead of the rest of the division in 2008. Hogs still have point-guard issues and key players whose decision making is questionable. Predicted league record: 10-6
OLE MISS: Andy Kennedy was the best coach in the division in 2006-07 in guiding the Rebs to a divisional title tie, and the Rebels started this season 8-0 despite having to rebuild their backcourt from last season. Dwayne Curtis gives the Rebs power and scoring inside, and so far this season the team has displayed impressive scoring balance, with Curtis and guard Chris Warren leading the way. David Huertas is a transfer from Florida who has helped the backcourt. Predicted league record: 10-6
MISSISSIPPI STATE: The Bulldogs may put the three most-talented players in the division on the floor in junior swingman Jamont Gordon, senior forward Charles Rhodes and sophomore guard Barry Steward. While the Dawgs only won five of their first nine games and dropped two big intersectional games at home (Clemson, Miami-Florida), it's best to not dwell on nonconference games. The Dawgs are usually strong defensively and will be helped by sophomore shotblocker Jarvis Varnado. Predicted league record: 8-8
AUBURN: Coach Jeff Lebo has had to take his lumps in the SEC as he rebuilds the Tigers, and he may finally have the right pieces in place to contend. Junior forward Korvortney Barber is the Tigers' top scoring threat, while DeWayne Reed and Rasheem Barrett and experienced seniors Frank Tolbert and Quan Prowell are athletic and capable of big scoring nights. Prowell missed five games with a suspension. Predicted league record: 8-8
ALABAMA: Coach Mark Gottfried had to suffer through last season with his star point guard, Ronald Steele, literally playing on one leg, and this year doesn't have him at all - Ronald Steele underwent surgery on both knees in the offseason. Pine Bluff native Mykal Riley and Alonzo Gee return to give Bama some outside shooting from the wings, while Richard Hendrix is a solid forward. There's no replacing Ronald Steele, though. Predicted league record: 5-11
LSU: Tigers coach John Brady won't get any sympathy from league coaches or rival fans with his talent having dropped off from 2006's Final Four team. Glenn "Big Baby" Davis jumped to the NBA. Phenomenal athletic forward Tasmin Mitchell is back along with swingman Garrett Temple. But the Tigers don't appear solid enough in the backcourt these days. Predicted league record: 4-12
EAST DIVISION
TENNESSEE: The Vols can put a solid first five on the court; they will hurt teams with Chris Lofton's deadly long-range shooting that opens up the inside for their athletic big men, Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism; JuJuan Smith and Ramar Smith are terrific talents; and they come into 2008 with plenty of much-needed experience in the NCAA Tournament. While there's plenty of talent, though, who will fill the valuable Dane Bradshaw role to keep things under control? Predicted league record: 13-3
VANDERBILT: Kevin Stallings and the Commodores were one second from going deep in the NCAA Tournament last year, and yet in one of college basketball's biggest mysteries, they couldn't handle Stan Heath's Arkansas team twice, even on their home court. Figure that. So far in '07-08 (by press time) Vandy had run off 10 wins, including escaping a couple of overtime contests, which will bode well for later in the year. Swingman Shan Foster and 6-foot-11 center A.J. Ogilvy are regularly capable of 20-point nights, while senior point guard Alex Gordon has also been through the wars. Predicted league record: 10-6
GEORGIA: Dennis Felton, the Jeff Lebo of the East Division, finally may have his pieces in place to contend. Georgia is led by hot-shooting guard Sundiata Gaines and junior swingman Terrance Woodbury. Billy Humphrey also provides scoring. In past years the Bulldogs' shooting and athleticism had to keep them in games against the bigger teams, but Felton has built a tall and physical front line. Predicted league record: 9-7
FLORIDA: It was great while it lasted in Gainesville, but now the big five who led the Gators to back-to-back national championships are gone. Don't think Coach Billy Donovan has let recruiting go untouched, however. Guard Walter Hodge and forward Marreese Speights are the only names anyone would recall from the past two championship teams, so get to know Nick Calathes, Dan Werner, super sub Chandler Parsons and point guard Jai Lucas, whose dad (John Sr.) and brother were very outstanding collegians. Predicted league record: 8-8
KENTUCKY: Tubby Smith left the cupboard far less filled than he found it in 1997-98, and so far first-year coach Billy Clyde Gillispie has paid for it with shocking losses, including a wipeout at Indiana. The team's best player may be true freshman Patrick Patterson. Joe Crawford eventually will have to take over this team and lead it for the Wildcats to be a factor. Predicted league record: 7-9
SOUTH CAROLINA: The Gamecocks' Dave Odom has talented transfer Devon Downey from Cincinnati eligible this season, and Downey has averaged more than 18 points a game in December. Zam Fredrick is also a dependable scorer. Odom is a good enough coach to make it work around Downey on some nights, but the question is whether he's brought in enough talent for the long haul. Predicted league record: 4-12
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